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10 - PEOPLE/(T-Z)/Jessica Utts.md
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@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ Utts became involved in parapsychology research assessment through her statistic
### 1995 AIR Evaluation
In June 1995 the CIA contracted the American Institutes for Research to review the DIA's Star Gate program, and AIR engaged Utts, then statistical editor of the *Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research*, and Ray Hyman as its two research reviewers, with Lincoln Moses of Stanford advising on statistics. The CIA supplied about 80 publications; the principal investigator, [[Edwin May]], was asked to name the studies he thought strongest. Utts's report of September 1, 1995, concluded: "Using the standards applied to any other area of science, it is concluded that psychic functioning has been well established. The statistical results of the studies examined are far beyond what is expected by chance. Arguments that these results could be due to methodological flaws in the experiments are soundly refuted. Effects of similar magnitude to those found in government-sponsored research at SRI and SAIC have been replicated at a number of laboratories across the world." She placed the effect "in the range between what social scientists call a small and medium effect," explained that with five-choice rank-order judging "the effect size for a series of remote viewings is (3.0 - average rank)/2," cited the 1988 analysis of 154 SRI experiments and 26,000 trials with a p-value below 10^-20, tabulated May's ten SAIC experiments (Entropy II: 90 trials, effect size 0.550), and compared novice and experienced viewers at SRI (0.164 and 0.385) with the ganzfeld results at the [[Psychophysical Research Laboratories]] (0.17 and 0.35). "It is recommended that future experiments focus on understanding how this phenomenon works," she wrote; "there is little benefit to continuing experiments designed to offer proof."[^2]
In June 1995 the CIA contracted the American Institutes for Research to review the DIA's Star Gate program, and AIR engaged Utts, then statistical editor of the *Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research*, and Ray Hyman as its two research reviewers, with [[Lincoln Moses]] of Stanford advising on statistics. The CIA supplied about 80 publications; the principal investigator, [[Edwin May]], was asked to name the studies he thought strongest. Utts's report of September 1, 1995, concluded: "Using the standards applied to any other area of science, it is concluded that psychic functioning has been well established. The statistical results of the studies examined are far beyond what is expected by chance. Arguments that these results could be due to methodological flaws in the experiments are soundly refuted. Effects of similar magnitude to those found in government-sponsored research at SRI and SAIC have been replicated at a number of laboratories across the world." She placed the effect "in the range between what social scientists call a small and medium effect," explained that with five-choice rank-order judging "the effect size for a series of remote viewings is (3.0 - average rank)/2," cited the 1988 analysis of 154 SRI experiments and 26,000 trials with a p-value below 10^-20, tabulated May's ten SAIC experiments (Entropy II: 90 trials, effect size 0.550), and compared novice and experienced viewers at SRI (0.164 and 0.385) with the ganzfeld results at the [[Psychophysical Research Laboratories]] (0.17 and 0.35). "It is recommended that future experiments focus on understanding how this phenomenon works," she wrote; "there is little benefit to continuing experiments designed to offer proof."[^2]
### Hyman Disagreement