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---
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created: 2026-10-13
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updated: 2026-10-13
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title: Commodity Futures Trading Commission
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aliases:
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- Commodity Futures Trading Commission
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- CFTC
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category: "U.S. Government"
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tags:
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- Organization
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- Government
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- CFTC
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- PredictionMarkets
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- EventContracts
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- Polymarket
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- Kalshi
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- PredictIt
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- Regulation
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- Derivatives
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summary: "The CFTC barred Nadex election contracts in 2012, fined Polymarket in 2022, disapproved Kalshi's congressional contracts in 2023, dropped its appeal of Kalshi's court win in 2025 and opened prediction-market rulemaking in 2026."
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relations:
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- type: prosecuted
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with: "[[Polymarket]]"
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start: 2022-01-03
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role: "settled order for offering off-exchange event-based binary options, 1.4 million dollar civil penalty"
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fn: 7
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- type: head_of
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with: "[[J. Christopher Giancarlo]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2017-01-20
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end: 2019-07-15
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role: "acting chairman from January 20, 2017; chairman from August 10, 2017"
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fn: 1
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- type: head_of
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with: "[[Heath Tarbert]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2019-07-15
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end: 2021-01-21
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role: "14th chairman"
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fn: 1
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- type: head_of
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with: "[[Rostin Behnam]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2021-01-21
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end: 2025-01-20
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role: "acting chairman from January 21, 2021; chairman from January 4, 2022"
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fn: 1
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- type: head_of
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with: "[[Caroline Pham]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2025-01-20
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end: 2025-12-22
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role: "acting chairman"
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fn: 1
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- type: head_of
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with: "[[Michael Selig]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2025-12-22
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role: "16th chairman"
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fn: 3
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- type: employed_by
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with: "[[Brian Quintenz]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2017-08-15
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end: 2021-08-31
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role: "commissioner"
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fn: 1
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---
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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the federal regulator of U.S. futures, swaps and options markets under the [[Commodity Exchange Act]]. Its decisions on whether contracts that pay out on elections and other real-world outcomes may be listed have governed, at different points, whether [[Polymarket]], [[Kalshi]], [[PredictIt]] and [[Nadex]] could offer them to customers in the United States.
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### Chairs and Commissioners, 2017 to 2026
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The CFTC's list of former commissioners gives these dates: [[J. Christopher Giancarlo]], acting chairman January 20 to August 10, 2017 and chairman August 10, 2017 to July 15, 2019; [[Heath Tarbert]], chairman July 15, 2019 to January 21, 2021, confirmed 84 to 9 by the Senate; [[Rostin Behnam]], commissioner from September 6, 2017 to February 7, 2025, acting chairman January 21, 2021 to January 4, 2022 and chairman January 4, 2022 to January 20, 2025; [[Caroline Pham]], commissioner from April 14, 2022 to December 22, 2025 and acting chairman from January 20, 2025; and [[Brian Quintenz]], commissioner August 15, 2017 to August 31, 2021.[^1]
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Behnam was elected acting chairman by the commissioners on January 21, 2021, the day Tarbert announced he was leaving the chairmanship.[^2] [[Michael Selig]] was nominated on October 27, 2025, confirmed by the Senate on December 18, 2025, and sworn in on December 22, 2025 as the 16th chairman. He had been chief counsel of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Crypto Task Force and a senior adviser to SEC chairman Paul Atkins.[^3] The commission's page of current commissioners, retrieved October 13, 2026, lists Selig alone.[^4]
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### The Nadex Order, 2012
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On April 2, 2012 the CFTC issued an order under Section 5c(c)(5)(C)(ii) of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulation 40.11(a)(1) prohibiting the North American Derivatives Exchange (Nadex) from listing or clearing political event derivatives. The contracts were binary options paying out on the results of various U.S. federal elections to be held in 2012. Nadex had self-certified them on December 19, 2011, and the CFTC began a 90-day review period on January 3, 2012. The CFTC "determined that the contracts involve gaming and are contrary to the public interest, and cannot be listed or made available for clearing or trading," and by separate letter asked Nadex to withdraw its self-certification of the related rule amendments.[^5]
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### PredictIt, 2014 to 2023
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In October 2014 the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight (DMO) issued a no-action letter to [[Victoria University of Wellington]], which had launched PredictIt as a data-gathering tool for academic researchers. The letter stated that, based on the university's representations, the DMO would "not recommend that the Commission take any enforcement action." The university had proposed capping trader investment at 850 dollars and restricting each event contract to 5,000 traders.[^6]
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In August 2022 the DMO rescinded the letter, stating that "[t]he University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms" of it and without identifying which terms, and directed that open positions be closed out by February 15, 2023. Users of the market, including Aristotle International and PredictIt, sued in the Western District of Texas in September 2022 (No. 1:22-CV-909).[^6]
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On July 21, 2023 the Fifth Circuit (Judges Graves, Ho and Duncan) held in Clarke v. CFTC, No. 22-51124, that a preliminary injunction was warranted because the rescission was "likely arbitrary and capricious," and remanded for the district court to enter one. Judge [[Stuart Kyle Duncan]] wrote the opinion, which treated the no-action letter as a "license" under the Administrative Procedure Act and rejected the CFTC's argument that a replacement letter of March 2023, which still called the original letter "void," had made the appeal moot. Judge [[James Ho]] concurred, writing that the plaintiffs' theory of final agency action "admittedly conflicts with the precedents of our sister circuits." Judge Graves agreed that the case was not moot and dissented from the injunction.[^6]
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### The Polymarket Order, January 2022
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On January 3, 2022 the CFTC entered an order filing and simultaneously settling charges against Delaware-registered Blockratize, Inc., doing business as Polymarket and based in New York City, for offering off-exchange event-based binary options and failing to obtain designation as a contract market or registration as a swap execution facility. The order found that from about June 2020 Polymarket had operated an unregistered facility for "event markets," offering more than 900 of them, with examples including "Will Trump win the 2020 presidential election?" The order required a 1.4 million dollar civil penalty, the wind-down of non-compliant markets, and a cease and desist. The release states that the CFTC recognized Polymarket's "substantial cooperation" with the Division of Enforcement.[^7]
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In July 2025 the Department of Justice and the CFTC closed their investigations of Polymarket without charges, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC; the Manhattan U.S. Attorney's Office had conducted the criminal investigation, and the company's chief executive [[Shayne Coplan]] had been the subject of an FBI search in November 2024. Polymarket acquired the CFTC-licensed exchange QCEX for 112 million dollars in July 2025.[^8][^9] The commission's order designating QCX LLC as a contract market was signed in July 2025, and on September 2, 2025 staff letter 25-28 gave QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, and QC Clearing LLC no-action relief from certain swap data reporting and recordkeeping rules for fully collateralized binary options.[^10] On May 27, 2026 the CFTC filed a civil complaint in the Southern District of New York against a Google software engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, alleging insider trading in event contracts tied to Google's 2025 Year in Search list on Polymarket; the criminal complaint in the same court was unsealed the same day. The allegations have not been tested in court.[^11]
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### Kalshi, 2020 to 2025
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The CFTC designated KalshiEX LLC as a contract market on November 4, 2020, and registered Kalshi Klear LLC as a derivatives clearing organization on August 29, 2024.[^12][^13]
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Kalshi self-certified "congressional control" contracts in a submission dated June 12, 2023, and the CFTC began its review on June 22, 2023. On September 22, 2023 the CFTC issued an order disapproving the contracts, which would have asked "Will <chamber of Congress> be controlled by <party> for <term>?" The CFTC determined that they "involve gaming and activity that is unlawful under state law and are contrary to the public interest." Chairman Behnam issued a statement, Commissioner Summer Mersinger dissented, and Pham issued a statement.[^14]
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Kalshi sued. On September 12, 2024 Judge [[Jia M. Cobb]] of the District of Columbia granted summary judgment to Kalshi, finding that the contracts "do not involve activity that is unlawful under any Federal or State law, nor do they involve gaming."[^15] The CFTC appealed (D.C. Cir. No. 24-5205).[^16]
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On May 5, 2025, under Acting Chairman Pham, the CFTC filed in the D.C. Circuit a voluntary dismissal of its appeal on terms agreed with Kalshi. A CFTC spokesman told CNBC that the commission had earlier voted to seek dismissal. The agreement called for both sides to bear their own costs and attorney fees and for Kalshi to waive all legal claims arising from the litigation. Kalshi's chief executive [[Tarek Mansour]] said: "Today is historic."[^17]
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Quintenz, a Kalshi director, was named in February 2025 as the choice to chair the agency. In an August 4, 2025 letter to Pham, Representative [[Dina Titus]] listed the settlement of the Kalshi lawsuit, the approval of new prediction market platforms and the closing of investigations among the actions the CFTC had taken since that nomination, and asked for the release of communications on prediction markets and event contracts.[^18]
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### Rulemaking on Event Contracts, 2024 to 2026
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On June 10, 2024 the CFTC published a proposed rule on "Event Contracts" (89 FR 48968), proposing to specify types of contracts that "involve gaming." On February 4, 2026 the commission withdrew it (91 FR 5386, published February 6, 2026), stating that it was withdrawing the proposal "to reconsider them in light of various forms of state regulatory actions and litigation concerning the Commission's exclusive jurisdiction over event contract derivatives listed on designated contract markets."[^19]
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On March 12, 2026 the CFTC announced an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets, published in the Federal Register on March 16, 2026 (91 FR 12516, RIN 3038-AF65, comments due April 30, 2026). Selig said: "This begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, while reassuring the American people that the CFTC will exercise its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets." The notice asked about the application of core principles to prediction markets, the types of event contracts that may be prohibited as contrary to the public interest, and cost-benefit considerations.[^20]
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On June 12, 2026 the commission proposed amendments (91 FR 35806, comments due July 27, 2026) that would specify factors for determining that event contracts are contrary to the public interest, define the term "gaming" and add a rule on when a contract "involves" an underlying activity. On July 1, 2026 it proposed an alternate data-reporting framework for fully collateralized event contracts (91 FR 40102, comments due July 31, 2026).[^21]
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### Footnotes
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[^1]: CFTC, "Former Commissioners," https://www.cftc.gov/About/Commissioners/FormerCommissioners/index.htm ; CFTC, "Tarbert Begins Term as 14th CFTC Chairman," Release No. 7976-19, July 15, 2019 (84 to 9 vote), https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7976-19 (Wayback copy, https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7976-19)
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[^2]: CFTC, "CFTC Names Rostin Behnam Acting Chairman," Release No. 8355-21, January 21, 2021. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8355-21 (Wayback copy, https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8355-21)
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[^3]: CFTC, "Michael Selig Sworn In as 16th CFTC Chairman," Release No. 9164-25, December 22, 2025. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9164-25 (Wayback copy, https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9164-25)
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[^4]: CFTC, "Chairman & Commissioners," retrieved October 13, 2026. https://www.cftc.gov/About/Commissioners/index.htm
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[^5]: CFTC, "CFTC Issues Order Prohibiting North American Derivatives Exchange's Political Event Derivatives Contracts," Release No. 6224-12, April 2, 2012. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/6224-12
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[^6]: Clarke v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, No. 22-51124 (5th Cir. July 21, 2023), majority opinion (Duncan, J.), concurrence (Ho, J.) and dissent (Graves, J.). https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/Opinions/pub/22/22-51124-CV0.pdf
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[^7]: CFTC, "CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty," Release No. 8478-22, January 3, 2022. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22
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[^8]: "Trump administration ends Polymarket investigations without charges," CNBC, July 15, 2025, as carried by NBC San Diego. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/business/money-report/trump-administration-ends-polymarket-investigations-without-charges/3868886/
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[^9]: "Donald Trump Jr joins Polymarket advisory board after his VC firm makes strategic investment," *CryptoSlate*, as carried by Yahoo Finance, August 26, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-jr-joins-polymarket-175527312.html
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[^10]: CFTC Letter No. 25-48, Supplemental Staff Letter regarding No-Action Position for QCEX Contracts, December 11, 2025, describing CFTC Letter No. 25-28 (September 2, 2025). https://www.cftc.gov/csl/25-48/download ; https://www.cftc.gov/csl/25-28/download ; Order of Designation, QCX LLC. https://www.cftc.gov/filings/documents/2025/orgdcmqcexorderofd250709.pdf
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[^11]: CFTC, Release Number 9237-26, "CFTC Charges Google Employee with Insider Trading in Search Result-Related Event Contracts," May 27, 2026, as reproduced by Mondo Visione, https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/cftc-charges-google-employee-with-insider-trading-in-search-result-related-event-2026528/ ; CNBC, "Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term," May 27, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/google-employee-polymarket-insider-trading.html
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[^12]: CFTC, "CFTC Designates KalshiEX LLC as a Contract Market," Release No. 8302-20, November 4, 2020. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8302-20
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[^13]: CFTC, "CFTC Grants Kalshi Klear LLC DCO Registration," Release No. 8957-24, August 29, 2024. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8957-24
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[^14]: CFTC, "CFTC Disapproves KalshiEX LLC's Congressional Control Contracts," Release No. 8780-23, September 22, 2023. https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8780-23
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[^15]: KalshiEX LLC v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, No. 1:23-cv-03257 (JMC) (D.D.C. Sept. 12, 2024), Memorandum Opinion, ECF No. 51, Part IV.
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[^16]: KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, No. 24-5205 (D.C. Cir.). https://dockets.justia.com/docket/circuit-courts/cadc/24-5205
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[^17]: "U.S. commodities regulator seeks to drop appeal of Kalshi election bets offers," CNBC, May 5, 2025, as carried by NBC San Diego. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/business/money-report/u-s-commodities-regulator-seeks-to-drop-appeal-of-kalshi-election-bets-offers/3818910/
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[^18]: Letter from Rep. Dina Titus to Acting Chairwoman Caroline D. Pham, August 4, 2025. https://titus.house.gov/uploadedfiles/8.4.25_quintenz_letter_1.pdf
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[^19]: "Event Contracts," 89 FR 48968 (June 10, 2024), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/06/10/2024-12125/event-contracts ; "Event Contracts; Withdrawal of Proposed Regulatory Action," 91 FR 5386 (February 6, 2026), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/02/06/2026-02454/event-contracts-withdrawal-of-proposed-regulatory-action
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[^20]: CFTC, "CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Relating to Prediction Markets," Release No. 9194-26, March 12, 2026, https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26 (Wayback copy, https://web.archive.org/web/2026/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9194-26); "Prediction Markets," 91 FR 12516 (March 16, 2026), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/03/16/2026-05105/prediction-markets
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[^21]: "Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations," 91 FR 35806 (June 12, 2026), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/12/2026-11854/prediction-markets-public-interest-determinations ; "Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contracts," 91 FR 40102 (July 1, 2026), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/01/2026-13239/data-reporting-requirements-for-certain-event-contracts
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@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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---
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created: 2025-07-22
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updated: 2026-10-08
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updated: 2026-10-13
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title: DARPA
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aliases:
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- DARPA
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@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ relations:
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with: "[[Stanford Research Institute]]"
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reverse: true
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start: 2005
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fn: 28
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fn: 32
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- type: funded
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with: "[[Stanford Research Institute]]"
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start: 1983
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@ -56,6 +56,12 @@ relations:
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with: "[[Center Lane]]"
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start: 1983
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fn: 19
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- type: funded
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with: "[[Policy Analysis Market]]"
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start: 2001-05
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end: 2003-07-29
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role: "FutureMAP research program, including the market proposal"
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fn: 27
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---
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The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is a research and development agency of the [[United States Department of Defense]] that funds advanced technology for military use. It was established in 1958 as the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA).[^1]
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@ -115,17 +121,25 @@ The conference report on the fiscal 2004 defense appropriations act, House Repor
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The statement names four projects previously under the office that may continue under DARPA: Bio-Event Advanced Leading Indicator Recognition Technology, Rapid Analytic Wargaming, Wargaming the Asymmetric Environment, and Automated Speech and Text Exploitation in Multiple Languages (including Babylon and Symphony).[^25] The conference agreement states that it "does not restrict the National Foreign Intelligence Program from using processing, analysis and collaboration tools for counterterrorism foreign intelligence purposes."[^25] DARPA created the Information Awareness Office in mid-January 2002, and [[John Poindexter]] directed it. On August 12, 2003 he submitted a five-page letter of resignation to Tether, effective August 29.[^26]
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### FutureMAP and the Policy Analysis Market, 2001 to 2003
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DARPA funded research on prediction markets from 2001, after [[Michael Foster]] of the National Science Foundation persuaded the agency in 2000. The first solicitation, issued in May 2001 as "Electronic Market-Based Decision Support," produced Small Business Innovation Research awards of about 100,000 dollars each to Neoteric Technologies and [[Net Exchange]]; both were funded for Phase II in fall 2002.[^27] In 2002 the program, by then named Futures Markets Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP), was placed within the Information Awareness Office under John Poindexter.[^27]
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DARPA's May 20, 2003 report to Congress on Terrorism Information Awareness lists FutureMAP among TIA's decision-support programs, says it "will answer predictive questions such as 'Will terrorists attack Israel with bioweapons in the next year?'", names the Center for Army Analysis and the Central Intelligence Agency as interested parties, and plans experiments at the Army's Intelligence and Security Command from fiscal year 2005, with budget lines of 3,000 thousand dollars for FY 2004 and 5,000 thousand for FY 2005.[^28]
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The Net Exchange component, the [[Policy Analysis Market]], was publicized by Senators [[Ron Wyden]] and [[Byron Dorgan]] on July 28, 2003, and the Pentagon abandoned it on July 29. The conference report on the fiscal 2004 defense appropriations act directed that the Information Awareness Office be terminated and listed four projects that could continue under DARPA; FutureMAP is not among them.[^29][^30]
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### ARPANET
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Leiner and coauthors state that [[Lawrence G. Roberts]] went to DARPA in late 1966 to develop the computer network concept and published a plan for the ARPANET in 1967. [[Bolt, Beranek and Newman]] developed the switches, called IMPs, under Frank Heart's leadership, with [[Robert Kahn]] responsible for overall system design. The first switch was installed at UCLA in September 1969. The authors credit Kahn with introducing open-architecture networking in late 1972, shortly after he arrived at DARPA.[^2]
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### Neural interface programs
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In January 2016 DARPA announced the Neural Engineering System Design (NESD) program, managed by [[Phillip Alvelda]]. The release sets a size goal of about one cubic centimeter for an implantable device that would link neural activity with digital systems, and gives a ceiling of $65 million over four years.[^27] The release lists devices that could compensate for deficits in sight or hearing by feeding digital auditory or visual information to the brain.[^27]
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In January 2016 DARPA announced the Neural Engineering System Design (NESD) program, managed by [[Phillip Alvelda]]. The release sets a size goal of about one cubic centimeter for an implantable device that would link neural activity with digital systems, and gives a ceiling of $65 million over four years.[^31] The release lists devices that could compensate for deficits in sight or hearing by feeding digital auditory or visual information to the brain.[^31]
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### Contractors
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Federal award records list 113 DARPA prime contract awards to SRI International with action dates from October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2026, whose Award Amount fields total $462,329,429.73 and whose transactions inside that date range total $423,420,369. The largest record is contract HR001106C0023, with action dates from November 2005 to March 2011 and an award amount of $41,671,826.77.[^28] Other records describe supply chain hardware security, machine translation under the BOLT program, semantic forensics, and molecular discovery.[^28]
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Federal award records list 113 DARPA prime contract awards to SRI International with action dates from October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2026, whose Award Amount fields total $462,329,429.73 and whose transactions inside that date range total $423,420,369. The largest record is contract HR001106C0023, with action dates from November 2005 to March 2011 and an award amount of $41,671,826.77.[^32] Other records describe supply chain hardware security, machine translation under the BOLT program, semantic forensics, and molecular discovery.[^32]
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### Footnotes
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@ -155,5 +169,9 @@ Federal award records list 113 DARPA prime contract awards to SRI International
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[^24]: Annie Jacobsen, *Phenomena: The Secret History of the U.S. Government's Investigations into Extrasensory Perception and Psychokinesis* (Little, Brown and Company, 2017).
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[^25]: Congressional Record, House, September 24, 2003, pp. H8500 to H8550, Conference Report on H.R. 2658, Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2004 (House Report 108-283), Sec. 8131 and Joint Explanatory Statement. https://sgp.fas.org/congress/2003/tia.html
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[^26]: Dan Caterinicchia, "Poindexter leaving DARPA," *Nextgov/FCW*, August 13, 2003. https://www.nextgov.com/people/2003/08/poindexter-leaving-darpa/201670/
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[^27]: DARPA, "Bridging the Bio-Electronic Divide," January 19, 2016 (paraphrased). https://www.darpa.mil/about-us/bridging-the-bio-electronic-divide
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[^28]: USAspending.gov API, POST /api/v2/search/spending_by_award/ and /api/v2/search/spending_by_category/recipient/, filters: time_period 2007-10-01 to 2026-09-30, award_type_codes A, B, C, D, recipient_search_text "SRI INTERNATIONAL", awarding subtier agency "Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency" (toptier Department of Defense); the count endpoint returned 113 contracts; reproduced October 8, 2026. https://api.usaspending.gov/docs/endpoints
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[^27]: Robin Hanson, "The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive," George Mason University. https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/policyanalysismarket.html
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[^28]: DARPA, "Report to Congress regarding the Terrorism Information Awareness Program," May 20, 2003, Annex B, FutureMAP. https://w2.eff.org/Privacy/TIA/TIA-report.html
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[^29]: "Pentagon Abandons Terrorism Betting Plan," Associated Press, July 29, 2003, as published by KSL. https://www.ksl.com/article/103317
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[^30]: Congressional Record, House, September 24, 2003, conference report on H.R. 2658 (House Report 108-283), Sec. 8131 and joint explanatory statement. https://sgp.fas.org/congress/2003/tia.html
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[^31]: DARPA, "Bridging the Bio-Electronic Divide," January 19, 2016 (paraphrased). https://www.darpa.mil/about-us/bridging-the-bio-electronic-divide
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[^32]: USAspending.gov API, POST /api/v2/search/spending_by_award/ and /api/v2/search/spending_by_category/recipient/, filters: time_period 2007-10-01 to 2026-09-30, award_type_codes A, B, C, D, recipient_search_text "SRI INTERNATIONAL", awarding subtier agency "Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency" (toptier Department of Defense); the count endpoint returned 113 contracts; reproduced October 8, 2026. https://api.usaspending.gov/docs/endpoints
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